Monday, March 4, 2013

March Madness at Meehan

Well, here we go. 

We got what we've all been wishing for eight years. Meehan Auditorium will see men's collegiate playoff hockey for the first time since Saturday, March 5, 2005. Brown will play host to Clarkson this weekend in a best-of-three matchup. 

And the Bears have a great shot at winning the series, as well. Sporting a 1-0-1 record against Clarkson this season (though both games were incredibly close), and with Clarkson coming off a mauling in the Capital District this past weekend, it would be silly not to see the Bears as a favorite in this game. 

But it's not that simple. It never is in the ECAC, especially in a season in which six points separated third place (Yale) from tenth (Clarkson). 
If Clarkson goalie Greg Lewis makes saves like this
 one, Brown might have some trouble finding the net.
Photo courtesy of ecachockey.com

Tech freshman goalie Greg Lewis has been inconsistent, but when he has been on, he's been spectacular. He's shut out Dartmouth and Yale, who both finished in the top five of the standings. He also had strong performances against Quinnipiac (saved 32 of 34 shots), Union (saved 27 of 28), and St. Lawrence (saved 34 of 35). 

Clarkson is also relatively good at comebacks, which could be a problem for a young Brown team. The Golden Knights sport a 6-8-3 record when opponents score first, as opposed to their terrible 3-10-4 record when they get on the board first. So we could see a lot of lead changes in this series. 

Another key will be shots on goal. When Clarkson outshoots its opponents, it is 5-5-6, while it is 3-13-1 when outshot. Brown is 8-3-2 when outshooting opponents, and 3-8-4 when outshot. It is not a stretch to say that whoever takes more shots will be in a good position to win. 

Special teams should be a wash, as both teams have terrible penalty kills (the Bears kill 77.2 percent of the time; the Knights, 78.6) and subpar power plays (Brown 13.6; Clarkson 15.7). 

Something that could be a factor, however, is penalty minutes. Brown is the seventh least-penalized team in the country, averaging just 9.72 penalty minutes a game. That number has dropped significantly since the first half of the year, and the Bears rarely take more than two or three penalties a game these days. This is necessary, given the inadequacies of the penalty kill. 

Clarkson, on the other hand, is the seventh most-penalized team in Division I, averaging 15.15 penalty minutes a game. If the two teams stay on par throughout this series, the Bears could find themselves with a lot more time on the power play than a man down. If the law of averages applies, Bruno is bound to cash in a couple of those opportunities. In this regard, special teams could be a lot more important than I initially thought. 

Another key matchup will be the goalies. We've already discussed Greg Lewis, Clarkson's likely starter. At the other end of the ice, Anthony Borelli is an enigma. Is he truly good enough to verify his incredible numbers (.943 save percentage, third nationally; 1.76 GAA, fifth nationally)? Is he just the product of a solid defensive system? If his defense collapsed on him, would he wilt, like in the Cornell home game and RPI away game? Or would he flourish, like in the Quinnipiac and Yale home games?
Anthony Borelli has a chance to shine, and prove that
he is, in fact, one of college hockey's best netminders.
Photo courtesy of USCHO.com

This series will provide great insight into how good Borelli can actually be. If the Bears get caught on a long shift, or on an odd man rush, can Tony bail them out? If he plays well, the Bears will most likely win this series. However, you can bet on Clarkson playing some stingy defense in this series, so if Borelli lets in a few soft goals, Brown could be in trouble. 

With plenty to look forward to and discuss about this weekend's series, let's take some time to reflect on what a genius I am. 



Back in September, I wrote an entry about what we should expect from this team. My predictions were almost eerily similar to how the season panned out. 

I said the Bears would finish somewhere around 12-13-4 overall and 8-11-3 in the ECAC, placing us somewhere between seventh and tenth place. 

Brown finished with an overall record of 11-12-6 and a 7-9-6 record in the ECAC, good for seventh place. 

Wow. I'm usually way off with predictions, but this time, I seemed to have nailed it! I guess I had a good feel for this team, and the fight Brendan Whittet would instill in it. I had no idea, however, how resilient it would end up being in the face of countless injuries to key players and a crazy goaltending situation. 

I wrote that I hoped the team would play more as a unit than in the past, where the entire offense seemed to revolve around players like Jack Maclellan or Harry Zolnierczyk. I think that while Matt Lorito actually became that focal point for most of the season, the offense is beginning to play as a unit now. 

Jeff Ryan, Garnet Hathaway, Chris Zaires, Mark Naclerio, Nick Lappin, and even grinders like Mark Hourihan and Joe Prescott, are finding ways to contribute positively on offense. Scoring from the third and fourth lines is imperative to a long playoff run- just ask the New Jersey Devils of last season.
The lesser-known Gionta came up huge in the playoffs last
season. Brown's lesser known forwards must do the same.
Photo courtesy of nydailynews.com

In the Eastern Conference Finals against the New York Rangers, when stars Ilya Kovalchuk and Zach Parise couldn't find the net, guys like Steve Bernier, Ryan Carter, and Stephen Gionta stepped up and provided scoring. That's how a playoff team has to function. The stars will inevitably be shut down by a strong defensive squad. When your bottom six forwards are producing, you're going places. 

Hopefully, the Bears' bottom six will continue to keep producing, and the top six will be able to penetrate Clarkson's best defensive pairings. It should be a fun series between two unpredictable teams. 

No comments:

Post a Comment